Global growth to slow less than expected – POLITICO

Global growth is slowing down less than previously expected, the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday in its updated World Economic Outlook.

World output is set to grow by 2.9 percent this year, down from 3.4 percent in 2022, weighed down by tightening monetary policy and the war in Ukraine.

That’s an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared with the 2.7 percent and 3.2 percent figures forecasted in October, thanks to stronger-than-expected growth in the third quarter of 2022.

Growth will resume in 2024 at 3.1 percent.

“This time around, the global economic outlook hasn’t worsened,” Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, IMF chief economist and research director, wrote in a blog post. “That’s good news, but not enough.”

Eurozone growth is expected to reach 0.7 percent this year—a 0.2 percentage-point upgrade — and 1.6 percent next. In 2022, the IMF reviewed eurozone growth upward to 3.5 percent from 3.1 percent previously because of lower energy prices and additional demand-side support measures.

Global headline inflation has peaked in the third quarter of last year, the Fund said, pushed down by a decline in commodity prices. But so-called core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, has yet to peak, spurred on by tight labor markets which generate strong wage growth.

The IMF expects global inflation to fall this year to 6.6 percent and to 4.3 percent in 2024, down from 8.8 percent in 2022 on average. Both headline and peak inflation are expected to remain higher than pre-pandemic levels in 2024.